The Eighth China-US Dialogue on Strategic Nuclear Dynamics

A CFISS-Pacific Forum CSIS Workshop

Monday, Nov. 4, 2013:

Session 1: The Strategic Environment
What are Chinese and US perceptions of the current strategic environment? What are the primary trends and concerns? What are our shared objectives and concerns when it comes to halting the spread of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, and responding to noncompliance issues/crises in particular? What are the implications of President Obama’s Berlin speech and overtures to Moscow for future arms reductions? Does President Xi’s “China dream” have a nuclear dimension? What role will/should nuclear weapons play in the emerging “new major country relationship” between Beijing and Washington? How does this play out in dealing with denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula? In dealing with Iran’s presumed nuclear ambitions?

Presenters: Linton Brooks, Qian Lihua

Session 2: Nonproliferation Cooperation
What are US and Chinese perceptions of and approaches to the DPRK and Iranian crises
as they relate to noncompliance? What are the similarities and differences? What are
the prospects for US-China cooperation to respond to the DPRK and Iranian challenges?
How can the United States and China cooperate to strengthen the NPT and reduce the
risks of noncompliance?

Presenters: Yang Xiyu, Lewis Dunn

Session 3: Nuclear Doctrine and Force Modernization
What are US and Chinese priorities in nuclear policy? What is the meaning and impact of the new US Nuclear Employment Strategy? While Chinese nuclear doctrine and commitment to NFU remain unchanged, how do Chinese characterize recent and ongoing changes in capabilities and nuclear force modernization? What evidence can Chinese present to counter controversial academic assessments of Chinese nuclear capabilities (such as Phillip Karber)? How would US specialists characterize current Chinese nuclear doctrine? How do Chinese specialists characterize current US nuclear doctrine? What are the major perception gaps? How do force modernization plans impact policy?

Presenters: Brad Roberts, Sun Xiangli

Session 4: Breakout Sessions
Group I: Space code of conduct
What would be the components of a space code of conduct? How would a code of conduct complement other space negotiations?

Presenters: Li Bin, Bruce MacDonald

Group II: Verification
Examination of the history of US-Soviet/Russian verification issues and lessons learned that might apply to Sino-US or broader multilateral verification efforts. What are Chinese views of the value and limitations of inspections in arms control agreements, drawing in part on the CWC and the CTBT experiences?

Presenters: Wu Jun, Kerry Kartchner


Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2013:

Session 5: Plenary Reports on Breakout Sessions

Presenters: Jerry Taylor, Li Bin

Session 6: Missile defense
What impact has North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs had on US missile defense plans? How does this impact China’s deterrence strategy? What are Chinese perceptions of current US missile defense capabilities and intentions? What are US views of Chinese missile defense policies and intentions? What forms of transparency would be valuable for/acceptable to both sides?

Presenters: Wu Riqiang, Bruce MacDonald

Session 7: Space Cooperation
What are Chinese and US perceptions of space security? Do/can we have a common definition of the main threats in the space domain? What are our shared interests in ensuring space stability, sustainability, and development? Can space security cooperation facilitate renewed civil and commercial space ties? What would be the objectives of a treaty for the prevention of an arms race in outer space? Is such an effort verifiable? How can China and the United States work in concert and build toward a framework to prevent space weaponization, control escalation, and avoid armed conflict in space? [This session should incorporate the key findings from the breakout session on developing a space code of conduct.]

Presenters: James Clay Moltz, Song Danhui

Session 8: Crises Management and Confidence and Security Building Measures
What mechanisms would be required to improve Sino-US coordination in the event of crisis? What is the relationship between crisis management and confidence and security building measures? What steps can the United States and China take (or avoid) in the area of nuclear arms reductions to ensure strategic stability is achieved/maintained and to build confidence? What are the core requirements and organizing principles for the United States and China to move toward greater strategic reassurance and to build mutual trust?

Presenters: Ouyang Wei, Michael Swaine

Session 9: Wrap-Up
What are the meetings key findings and conclusions? What are the next steps for this dialogue and for the broader China-US strategic relationship?

Presenters: Dennis Blair, Hu Sid

Click here for link to the Agenda

Click here for link to the Key Findings Report

Event is by invitation only