9th US-China Strategic Dialogue
Facing Common Interests and Challenges in the Strategic Relationship
September 9-10, 2015
Recent Changes in Strategic Environment and Policy Statements
What are American and Chinese perceptions of recent developments in the regional and global strategic environment? Chinese policy documents continue to increase the depth of discussion on its strategic policy with the publication of China’s Military Strategy in May 2015 and the 2013 version of the Science of Strategy/战略学. The National Security Outline has also been finalized and discussed in the Chinese press. U.S. policy continues to be promulgated through documents such as the 2015 National Military Strategy and National Security Strategy and the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review. What new can be learned from these recent statements? What threats or developments in international security environment are these military policies (of both countries) trying to respond to and how do they do so?
Missile Defense and Extended Deterrence
In past discussions, it is clear that missile defense capabilities raise both regional issues as well as issue in the global bilateral relationship. How does each side see missile defense as contributing to their own national defense? How does each side see missile defense supporting (or affecting) extended deterrence in Asia? Are there prospects for mutual accommodation of diverging views on this issue?
We will divide into two different groups for a discussion of two scenarios: South Asia nuclear use in a war, and North Korea nuclear crisis (a NK test in an intense crisis). Scenarios will be prepared in advance (NPS to prepare the South Asia scenario, CACDA to prepare the NK scenario). The small groups will discuss possible reactions to and issues raised by each scenario, including ground of possible cooperation to manage the dangers posed. Discussion questions to structure the panel will be distributed in advance.
Plenary Discussion of Scenarios
In the plenary session, each breakout group will present the key points of agreement, disagreement, and new questions that emerged in their group's discussion of specific scenarios. The co-chairs will lead that discussion.
Strategic Stability in the Modern Era
The two sides have discussed strategic stability at the track 2 level and are starting to do so at the track 1 level. What areas of mutual understanding have the two sides developed? What are the major areas of differing views? How does each side envision its military modernization enhancing strategic stability? What can each side do (or refrain from doing) that would enhance it?
Ongoing and Near term Confidence and Security Building Measures
What are each side’s views on the utility of the current military CSBMs being implemented in the wake of the Sunnylands summit of 2013? How can progress in this regard be extended to the strategic realm?
Implications and Ways Forward