2019 US-ROK-Japan Trilateral Strategic Dialogue

September 5-6, 2019
Maui, Hawaii

Introductory Remarks
Bob Girrier

Session 1: Northeast Asia Extended Deterrence
Is extended deterrence having the desired effects on the Northeast Asian security environment? What are its current strengths and weaknesses? Have new challenges emerged (for example, the demise of the INF treaty)? What more should be done to adapt and strengthen the practice of deterrence in the region by the United States, Japan, and South Korea, (whether separately, cooperatively, or collectively)? What steps would be unhelpful at this time?

Presenter: Brad Roberts

Session 2: National Defense Strategies Five Years Ahead
A speaker from each country will chart the anticipated evolution of her/his country’s national defense strategy for Northeast Asia over the next five years. (Emphasis not on should be, but will be.) Questions to address include: What are the threats and how are they prioritized? What are defense priorities, and how will they affect deployments and posture? What developments have the most ability to change that answer? What will be the nature of the relationship with the US (or each alliance partner, for the US speaker)? What is the role of cross-alliance relations (or how do the two alliances and allies interact)? What is the defense posture and how does deterrence fit into planning? How does Northeast Asia fit into the Indo-Pacific defense posture?

Presenters: Eric Sayers, Tetsuo Kotani, Seukhoon Paul Choi

General Briefing on TTX
Brad Glosserman

Session 3: TTX Move 1
Group breaks out into country groups; each group prepares answers to TTX Round 1 questions.

Session 3A: Plenary – Round 1 Assessment
Plenary reconvenes to provide answers to questions and how each group reached those conclusions. After each presentation, the group is questioned by others on process and outcome.

Session 4: TTX Move 2
Group breaks out into alliance groups and prepares answers to TTX Round 2 questions.

Session 4A: Plenary – Round 2 Assessment
Plenary reconvenes to provide answers to questions and how each group reached those conclusions. After each presentation, the group is questioned by others on process and outcome.

Session 5: TTX Wrap-up

Session 6: Missiles and Northeast Asia

A speaker from each country will provide a national perspective on the importance of enhanced strike capability in each country. How does each government assess the impact of the end the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty? What will be the response of regional governments? What is the impact on the military balance of power? What are the prospects for a future arms control agreement that addresses this class of missiles? How will your government respond? What does it expect from the other two countries?

Presenters: Sugio Takahashi, Jina Kim, Elaine Bunn

Session 7: Wrap-Up and Next Steps
A discussion among the trilateral participants on various conclusions, next steps for trilateral security cooperation, and specific topics to address in our future meetings.

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